Ok, after extensive thought and impatience, I have finally come to a conclusion about the $.50/1 and $1/$2nl game on Full Tilt late at night= THEY'RE GOOOOOT! Many drunks and overaggro donks get on by the dozens :) Made one bad play at plo, and made one stupid bluff when I was COMPLETEly surprised by how good my opponents' hand was. I luckily ran fairly well at 1/2 nl 6max (50BB buy in) and played great. I love the lines I took to get value as well as protecting hands. However, I have decided to play a bit more solidly, not as bluffy, tighten up SLIGHTLY, and not set mine (no details I sort of want this to be a secret strategy
So it looks like I lost ~$200 in PLO, tho played well, so I'm maybe up $50 for the day in PLO, but won $750 tonite in NLHE. $+550 tonite, putting my roll at a better $2500. I started at $1400 earlier today and felt like crap!! :-) I have come to a conclusion as well about luck; when you play well, running well just seems to normally come along. I would agree with this 80%. 4/5 times, you will run well when you get the money in and you will hold vs the fish who stuck his money in with bottom pair and gutshot. 15% of the time you will take some bad beats but still have a winning session, and 5% of the time u will run unreal and go down for a big number because some idiot keep sucking out. Truth is, it's the 20% of the time that makes u the 80% of the money, if you think about. Why? Yes, very bizarre thing to say, but think about it. The fish getting lucky keeps bringing them back. The thought about them hitting their flush or straight draw, or flopping their set, they're going to be playing incorrectly against you most of the time. Capitalize on that 80% and push you're equity and skill advantages and stick it to the fish most of the time, to definitely cover the time you run bad. That's definitely one of my problems in poker- I do not stop early enough when I'm runing bad, tend to move up limits and chase losses, and also gamble a little too much and play a bit sporattic. When I'm not playing my B+ game, I will quit the session for sure. When I'm playing my B+ A game, I will play as long as I can, excercise good table selection and discipline, and also get reads on my opponents to put them on ranges preflop and postflop and the line they take to play effectively against their most likely holding. PT Stats for today overall for NLHE: 1550 hands, ran at 24/21/4, winning $750 at 16.7BB/100. I guess I won $350 today at PLO (good score playing .50/1). I'm definitley getting better and having more discipline, and realize something like a quarter wrap plus a pair is a decent favorite against my bottom two, so instead of bet/calling a raise and open potting a safe turn, I decided to bet/fold and wait for a better spot. This will safe me a lot of money; earlier tonite I overplayed QQ on a Jxx board that wuz so dry I assumed the guy had a decent straight draw, and with QQ I thought I had two blockers fo rthe straight, so I called and openshoved turn (Ad- bad turn card but figured he couldn't call w/o AJxx, set, or half wrap+ with flush draw). He had middle set and scooped; I def spewed chips and have learned. I used to have SUCH discipline in PLO; i will try to have a combination between the UBERNIT styles and LAGGY unpredictable ones. Hands:
Unreal bad play by this guy; this is one of the reasons I'll try to play fairly brief session at nite more! There are many drunktards, but also many sharks because of the donktards/drunktards. I'll just have to practice good game selection and play within my limits and ill do fine. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1127338
He c/c pretty quick then donked the turn; 100% sure I wuz ahead here, so I just called and expected him to bluff the riv. He shoved, I wuz more than wiling to call, he had missed gutshot; he's an idiot :)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1127336
I'll show the cooler this guy put on me earlier; u'll c y I couldn't fold bottom two on a drawy board with heavy action to him! This hand he overcalled preflop vs a shorstack OOP with Axs while one guy still had to act. Doesn't that say it all about his skill level? I put him on mid pair like 77-99, which is probably goingt o c/c a bet on the flop. I decided to go for the turn freebie, which I hit, and he was drawing to a very slim chop on the river which I luckily dodged.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1127339
I had a read on this guy that he was a calling station and also liked to flatcall with sets, at least on flop. I decided to not give him the option to flatcall the river without getting his whole stack in if he had a set, so I just shoved and expected him to have set or two pair and to pay it off. Pretty sick cooler on him; I LOVE my rele aggro line, jus a sick cooler for him. RELE Wish we were deeper but w/e. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1127342
Vs any normal person in a limped pot, I would snapfold and assume this is aces up or set, especially with the blind overcalling. However, we both knew he wuz a shithead, so I couldn't fold, he coolered me... (same guy from the a4hh hand to my AKcc that cold-called a 3bet preflop from a shorstack with one guy still left to act and will be OOP vs both players postflop).
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1127347
I made a rele bad raise on this flop- i ahd no reads on this player, but I had to snapcall the shove becuz it looked so much like combo draw. Cooler; luckily I only had 50BB. I expect a better 5 to make at least make a reraise and not a shove, and a 4 to call, and only a big draw to shove here. Jus a cooler; I wuz almost positive during the betting my kicker wouldn't rele matter, so I wuzn't worried there. How many coolers can I get in limped pots preflop!?I assumed he had 67ss, a2ss, 32ss, one of those. W/e...http://www.pokerhand.org/?1127349
I could never see this guy having a K at all. He had been doing elaborate bluffs like this so I decided to make a rele thin calldown. Expected maybe 57hh or some sort of busted draw. Yes, my kicker sux, but I'm not too worried about that at all. I'm more looking at weak pair bluffing or a complete float with just air, maybe a busted gutshot that could have picked up a turn heart. His c/min ray didn't look like a big hand at all, and his river pot didn't look very strong either because it wuz pretty fast. I think I played the hand fine, and allowed him to bluff by playing it conservative. I expect a bluff from this type of player most of the itme, but he rele did have a hand. His flop c/c wuz atrocious tho- I bet the turn (though it was bad) to fold out button which mite have had better 9 or could have tried to take the pot from me- it wuz bad bet but I wunted to iso vs the fish who I assumed I had beat rather than I guy that could fold a 9 in this spot with a better kicker than me rather than having to worry about him at showdown because I couldn't get value from the idiot...yea lol
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1127355
So yea, good night session, good games just need to work on table selection since there r the easiest AND the hardest games fairly late at nite. On a side note, looked through my PT database and noticed almost all my premium hands were winners. Only AKs was Negative $800 net, because my heads up session when I was on tilt vs a guy that runs like G-d himself vs me, and I shoved in 200BB total with AKhh vs him who would 3bet often, expecting to have lots of FE and be flipping vs his most probably calling range. He woke up with KK and I wuz busted. I raised button, he reraised blind, I 4bet overshoved; I thought it would be +EV. But this guy rele does run unreal everytime I play him; he even beat Aba in a CR video becuz he runs SOOO good (coolered him when Aba had TPTK on drawy board and the guy had set in reraised pot) and other sticky spots. So yea, bad luck on that part; otherwise AKs would be about even, which is probably just a product of negative variance (only 43k hands). So I think I'm playing very solid and I'll have a montly checkup and review of my PT Stats to look for anything strange and look at the biggest winning and losing hands- should be fun.
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